Sunday, 17 May 2020

Daily COVID-19 charts of selected countries

UPDATED 20-10-2020

This post is charting the progress after the first coronavirus peak in Europe. 

For information on COVID-19 gleaned during the first COVID-19 peak -see post "State of Covid-19, caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus, on 16th May 2020" available here http://www.miltoncontact-blog.com/2020/02/should-i-worry-about-covid-19-wuhan.html

USA figures are from their CDC (Centre for Disease Control). Note that the data from CDC to date seems to lag several days behind the figures given by John Hopkins and the Worldometer. For the past 2 days the CDC data tracker has not been accessible to me.

UK figures from UK Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England, Global and other EU data from WHO situation reports.

Initially,  the most amazing and reassuring feature of global cumulative cases was that we were seeing a linear increase in numbers, rather than the exponential one in the early days. This has changed as COVID-19 cases accelerate again globally and then settled at a faster linear rate of increase. 

Cumulative global cases to date pass the 39 million mark: 40,251,950; cumulative global deaths due to COVID-19 to date: 1,116,131.

The first two charts are key to showing whether countries have managed to gain control over the COVID-19 epidemic. What we all want to see is that the number of new cases per day is decreasing. The day to day data varies quite a bit. To even out the curve to see the underlying trend, I plot the  average of the values for the 7 days including the most recent day. 

Figure 1. shows the atypical USA data which reached its second peak of nearly 70,000 new cases per day and then began to decline. Yet over the past weeks, the US values are climbing again. The averaged daily figures for the US are still very much higher than those for the selected European countries. Daily rates can however be seen as dramatically increasing again for France, the UK - and now Italy, Germany and Belgium.

Figure 1. Daily new cases (7 day average) for the USA and selected European countries

After a long decline after the first coronavirus peak, there worrying new fast upward trend again in the UK and France, followed by Germany, Italy and Belgium. 

Figure 2. Daily new cases (7 day average) for selected European countries

The current strategy is to identify hot spots and damp them down by reinforcing local lockdowns until the coronavirus levels decline.

Figures 3 and 4 appear to suggest that the number of global cases is increasing at a faster, but linear, rate again, doubling every 10 weeks. The Americas and Africa are particularly affected, with the USA accounting for almost a quarter of all the worlds cases.

As new cases increase, so have deaths, but proportionally not as rapidly as the number of cases. The percentage of deaths relative to cases has declined globally from a peak of 7% in April to 2.8 today.

Figure 3. Linear plot of both cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths

Figure 4. Logarithmic plot of both cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths

The USA has had so many more cases than any other developed country, that the cumulative cases have to be plotted on their own as in figure 5. The rate is currently at just under 1 million new cases per 22 days.

The cumulative plots of coronavirus cases in selected EU countries show the new upsurge that began a few weeks ago.

Figure 5. Cumulative COVID-19 cases in the USA.

Figure 6. Cumulative COVID-19 cases over time for France, Germany, Italy, Russia ,the United Kingdom, and Belgium

Figure 7. Cumulative COVID-19 cases, logarithmic plot, over time for USA, France, Germany, Italy, Russia, the United Kingdom, and Belgium

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