Sunday, 17 May 2020

Daily COVID-19 charts of USA, UK and selected EU countries

UPDATED 15-04-2021

This post is charting the progress after the first coronavirus peak in Europe. 

The toughest rules to try and contain the Coronavirus epidemic in the UK are in place. A faster spreading variant of the virus has been spreading in the south east of the UK. The The whole of England is now in full Lockdown. 

Cumulative global cases to date pass the 120 million mark at 137,866,311. Cumulative global deaths due to COVID-19 to date: 2,965,707.

The first two charts are key to showing whether countries have managed to gain control over the COVID-19 epidemic. What we all want to see is that the number of new cases per day is decreasing. The day to day data varies quite a bit. To even out the curve to see the underlying trend, I plot the  average of the values for the 7 days including the most recent day.

Figure 1. shows the USA data which appeared to have passed its fifth peak, declined to less than 60,000 new cases per day, before it appeared to start increasing again. The USA is compared to the daily cases for Russia, France, the UK, Italy, Germany and Belgium. The EU countries shown reached their third peak, then daily cases declined and then levelled out at a still relatively high level. Unfortunately, values began rising there again. Most recently, Italy appears to have passed its third peak. France and Germany are struggling. The UK was later in reaching its peak of daily cases, at roughly the same time at the US but then declined to be lower even than Belgium. 

Figure 1.  Following a long decline after the first coronavirus peak, there has been a second peak and and then a third peak. The USA  and the EU countries are now past their most recent peak.

Figure 2. Daily new cases (7 day average) for selected European countries

The current strategy is to identify hot spots and damp them down by reinforcing the total lockdowns until the coronavirus levels decline. However, the rapid decline in new cases and the decrease in the virus R rate to below 1 is resulting in gradual relaxation of the lockdown in the UK and USA.

Figures 3 appears to suggest that the increase in the number of global cases was slowing down but are now speeding up again. The reassuring feature is that the death rate has decreased from a peak of 7% in April 2020 to 2.2% at the most recent date, or 2.5% of the cases infected 28 days ago.

Figure 3. Global cumulative cases of COVID 19 and deaths by Covid over time.

The cumulative figures below reflect the rise, slowdown and new rise in cases seen in many countries.

Figure 4. Cumulative cases of Covid-19 for the USA and selected European countries.

Figure 5. Cumulative COVID-19 cases in the UK and selected European countries.

For information on COVID-19 gleaned during the first COVID-19 peak -see post "State of Covid-19, caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus, on 16th May 2020" available here http://www.miltoncontact-blog.com/2020/02/should-i-worry-about-covid-19-wuhan.html

USA figures are from their CDC (Centre for Disease Control), occasionally from the Worldometer when not. 

UK figures from UK Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England, Global and other EU data from WHO situation reports.


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