Sunday, 17 May 2020

Daily COVID-19 charts of USA, UK and selected EU countries

UPDATED 21-01-2021

This post is charting the progress after the first coronavirus peak in Europe. 

The toughest rules to try and contain the Coronavirus epidemic in the UK are in place. A faster spreading variant of the virus has been spreading in the south east of the UK. The The whole of England is now in full Lockdown. 

Cumulative global cases to date pass the 90 million mark at 95,612,831. Cumulative global deaths due to COVID-19 to date: 2,066,176.

The first two charts are key to showing whether countries have managed to gain control over the COVID-19 epidemic. What we all want to see is that the number of new cases per day is decreasing. The day to day data varies quite a bit. To even out the curve to see the underlying trend, I plot the  average of the values for the 7 days including the most recent day. 

Figure 1. shows the USA data which appeared to have passed its fifth peak and is now declining but still at more than 200000 cases per day. The USA is compared to the daily cases for Russia, France, the UK, Italy, Germany and Belgium. These countries reached their third peak, 

Figure 1.  Following a long decline after the first coronavirus peak, there has been a second peak and and then a third peak. The USA now past its fifth peak.

Figure 2. Daily new cases (7 day average) for selected European countries

The current strategy is to identify hot spots and damp them down by reinforcing the total lockdowns until the coronavirus levels decline.

Figures 3 appears to suggest that the number of global cases is increasing at an linear rate of about 10 million new cases every 20 days. The Americas and Africa are particularly affected, with the USA accounting for a quarter of all the worlds cases. The reassuring feature is that the death rate has decreased from a peak of 7% in April to 2.2% at the most recent date, or 2.7% of the cases infected 28 days ago.

Figure 3. Linear plot of both cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths

Looking at the cumulative data for the selected countries, global figures and many countries are showing a high but linear growth in cases. 

Figure 4. Cumulative COVID-19 cases in  USA, UK and selected European countries.

Figure 5. Cumulative COVID-19 cases in the UK and selected European countries.

For information on COVID-19 gleaned during the first COVID-19 peak -see post "State of Covid-19, caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus, on 16th May 2020" available here

USA figures are from their CDC (Centre for Disease Control), occasionally from the Worldometer when not. 

UK figures from UK Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England, Global and other EU data from WHO situation reports.