Monday, 3 February 2020

State of Covid-19, caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus, on 16th May 2020


Photo: CDC/C.S. Goldsmith - https://www.cdc.gov/sars/lab/images.html

Updated 16 May 2020 15:30
data as of 15 May April 2020 

COVID-19 still affects many people in Europe and the US. The disease could be with us for the next few months and possibly into next year.


  • Most of the hardest hit European countries and the USA are seeing the results of their varied lockdowns. 
  • The number of new COVID-19 cases per day appears to have reached its peak in many of them, begun to decline in some such as France and Germany and recently, the USA
  • At last, the number of new cases in the UK begins to show a decline.
  • Russia is a latecomer to infection and is just reaching its peak.
  • The controls are being loosened slightly in some countries. Everyone is on the alert for any negative impact of lesser restrictions. 
  • Most countries are ramping up testing for track and trace as a tool of combating the progress of the disease, possibly with the help of apps.
  • Several preliminary trials of potential vaccines are being tested globally. 
  • Testing/screening
    • PCR is still the most accurate method of testing for coronavirus infection, but takes time and expertise. 
    • There is a new fast single step DNA test awaiting approval, which uses CRISPR technology. It might even be possible to conduct this one at home.
    • Faster antigen based tests against the virus are being evaluated to identify COVID-19 infection in greater numbers. 
    • Screens for virus specific antibodies are also being evaluated to identify those who have recovered and to see if they have a longer lasting immunity.

This article covers:


  • What is the COVID-19 coronavirus? Symptoms and risks.
  • The spread of COVID-19 in Charts
  • Will I be infected?
  • How can I protect myself?
  • What nations and the international community can do
  • So, should I be concerned?

What is the COVID-19 coronavirus? Symptoms and risks.


COVID-19, is the disease caused by SARS CoV 2, formerly known as the Wuhan 2019 nCoV by the WHO (World Health Organisation). This is a new coronavirus that began in the Chinese city of Wuhan and originated in bats.

Symptoms can include fever, sore throat, dry cough, fatigue and breathing difficulties. A recent report suggests digestive problems can by symptomatic in nearly half of admitted patients. There are lots of different coronaviruses infecting humans and animals. Some of the colds you had in the past were probably caused by a human coronavirus.

This COVID-19 appears to be mild in most cases. However, those with pre-existing health problems and the elderly are more likely to be severely affected.  In severe cases it can cause a viral pneumonia and cause death. See below for more information.

Further results show that men and persons from black, Asian and other minority groups (BAME) are more likely to be adversely affected by COVID-19. Social (poverty and and differences in family groupings) appear to be important here.

COVID-19 is different from flu and the common cold in that it affects the lower respiratory tract rather than the upper. A recent publication suggest that digestive issues often arise before the other symptoms. See the comparison of symptoms below. The colours indicate likelihood from red = most likely to white = not likely:

Table 1. Comparison of symptoms between COVID-19, Flu and the common cold. Collated from various medical sources. Includes recent article on gastric problems in the American Journal of Gastroenterology.


COVID-19 seems to be at least as infectious as flu, with an average rate of one person infecting between 2 to 4 people, with suggestions tending towards the higher figure. One person with Rubella infects 5 to 7 people and one with measles, 12 - 18 people.

If you are fit and healthy, the COVID-19 disease is much less likely to be severe. You are at much greater risk if you have a compromised immune system or are affected by other illnesses. As with many diseases, the over 60s are more vulnerable.

Current estimates are that the death rate from COVID-19 from global figures has risen from  5%, or 1 in 20 on average to 6.9%. However, it is higher for figures given by some countries. For example, Italy has a mortality figure of about 13%, the UK also has a figure of 13%. This may be the result of insufficient testing, such as only testing admissions to hospital.

For comparison, Measles kills 1 in 500, a previous coronavirus – SARS - killed  almost 1 in 10. Seasonal  flu usually has a death rate one tenth that of COVID-19. 

Detailed figures on mortality rates for COVID-19 are now available based on 44,672 cases from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (figure 2). Age is an important factor. How healthy you are also has a significant effect.

Figure 2. Mortality rate  with age for COVID-19 based on on 44,672 cases from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. I have deliberately set the vertical axis to 100% to avoid  over-emphasising the figures.

Figure  3. The effect of  pre-existing conditions on deaths by COVID-19. I have deliberately set the vertical axis to 100% to avoid  over-emphasising the figures.

A preliminary Chinese study (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2) looking at ABO blood groups in COVID-19 patients suggested that blood group A was associated with a slightly higher risk for acquiring COVID-19 (about 1.2 x above average) compared with non-A blood groups, whereas blood group O was associated with a slightly lower lower risk (0.67 x of average) for the infection compared with non-O blood groups. The results still need to be validated by others.

The spread of COVID-19 in Charts


By the 15 May:
  • Europe is still the centre of the pandemic but the US has overtaken all countries in number of COVID-19 cases
  • The rest of the world is still showing a linear increase at about 70,000 new cases per day. However some countries appear to have passed the peak
  • 215 countries and territories have cases of COVID-19 recorded now. For all daily data from the WHO, see https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
I have limited my monitoring to countries with historic high cases of COVID-19 (China, Iran, South Korea) as well as Japan, Australia, and European countries with more than 1,000 cases. Of the countries I am monitoring:
  • Eight countries have 1000 -2,000 cases:  Bosnia and Herzegovinia, Bulgaria, Estonia, Iceland,  Lithuania, North Macedonia, Slovenia, Slovakia.
  • Twelve countries  have more than 2000 - 11000 cases: Armenia, Australia, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Luxembourg, Norway, Republic of Moldova,  Serbia.
  • Eleven countries have 10,000 to 50,000 COVID-19 cases - Austria, Ireland, Japan, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine.
  • Ten countries have more than 50,000 cases of COVID-19: Belgium, China, France, Germany,  Iran, Italy, Russia, Spain, the United Kingdom, the USA.

I use the data from the WHO Situation Reports, which reflect figures that lag about 12-24 hours behind the final figures on any date. They are at least consistent and allow trends to be observed over time. US figures have been obtained from the CDC or the Worldometer when CDC unavailable at Weekends, and UK figures from Public Health England. (UK counts now include the results from the expanded testing from the beginning of May.)

By the morning of 15 May, 2020, more than 4,338,658 total cases of COVID-19 had been reported worldwide.

Figure 4 below shows that after the leveling off of cases in China by the 16th February, cases in the rest of the world began, and still are, increasing (figures 4 and 5) but the rate of increase is linear, not exponential (figure 4 & 5,) at a rate of half a million cases per week.   The number of deaths to date globally is 297,119 (figure 4 and 5). There is still a daily increase.

The  top scoring locations are USA and a number of European countries, who account for most of all  cases (figures 6,7, 8 and 9).  Cases in the USA exceed those of other countries more five and a half times.

Some European countries and the USA have now implemented measures to relax their strict lock-down measures. The number of new cases in European countries is beginning to slow down, judging by data from the past few weeks (figures 6 and 7).  


Figure 4. Total counts of global accumulated COVID-19 cases and recorded deaths over time

Figure 5.  Same data as figure 4 but as a logarithmic plot  (base 2) of global cases of COVID-19 and global deaths. Horizontal lines for values increasing 2 fold.

I have introduced two new charts which show the number of new cases per day (figures 6 and 7). Daily figures do vary a lot, so I have used an average of the previous 7 days for each day which smooths the curve. The climb to a peak, leveling off and decline is seen much more easily.

It looks as if Spain and Italy have reached the peak and are on the decline. Germany and France also appear to be past their peak.  The UK at last shows a similar trend though the sign of decline in new cases is only just appearing. USA values are so high, they merit their own graph (figure 6) but appear to have reached a peak at 32,000 new cases per day are declining slowly.  

Figure 06. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the USA per day, Seven day average. 



The dates of the peaks of new cases per day are interesting: Italy 26th March; Spain 31st March; Germany, France and Iran by the 2nd-4th April, USA 10-14th April; the UK 13th - 16th April. Among lower scoring countries, Austria and Switzerland peaked at almost the same time. Belgium and The Netherlands show a similar pattern of reaching a peak at about the same time and then plateauing off without a significant decline for more than a fortnight afterwards.



Figure 07. The number of new COVID-19 cases in countries other than the USA per day, Seven day average. Note the 10 fold differences in scales in these two figures.

The following graphs show the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases over time for selected countries. USA has had five and half times as many cases than any other country so is shown separately in some of the charts. Russia is showing a late rapid increase in cases but has reached its peak.




Figure 8.Ten countries have more than 50,000 total cases of COVID-19: Belgium,  China, France, Germany,  Iran, Italy, Russia, Spain, the United Kingdom, the USA. The graphs is also shown without the US as the values in the US are more than five times higher than any other country.

Figure 9. The same data as figure 8 but using a logarithmic plot (base 2 ). Horizontal lines for values increasing 2 fold. Ten countries have more than 50,000 cases of COVID-19: Belgium, China, France, Germany,  Iran, Italy, Russia, Spain, the United Kingdom, the USA.
Most countries with 10,000 plus cases out of their exponential growth phase as seen in figures 8 and 9,  showing a slow down in the number of new cases over the past few weeks (figures 10 & 11). 

Figure 10.Eleven countries have 10,000 to 50,000 COVID-19 cases to date - Austria, Ireland,  Japan, The Netherlands,  Poland, Portugal, South Korea,  Romania, Sweden, Switzerland., Ukraine.


Figure 11.Logarithmic plot, base 2. Eleven countries have 10,000 to 50,000 COVID-19 cases to date - Austria,  Ireland,  Japan, The Netherlands,  Poland, Portugal, South Korea,  Romania, Sweden, Switzerland., Ukraine.

Taking the UK as an example, the rate of increase of new cases is slowing down. Figure 12 below shows that the time taken for a ten fold increase in cases in the UK has come down from ten-fold every 7 days to two-fold every 46 days and declining. Hopefully the rate will continue to slow down.

Figure 12. Graph showing the change in the rate at which new cases arise in the UK. The rate of increase in COVID-19 cases, based on the last 7 days, is about two fold every 46 days and declining.


Table 3. Showing data for countries  with more than 10,000 cases of COVID-19


Public Health England map and charts of COVID-19 across the UK
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR3Fztr_XCIHs0MvsNv7D9QJNIfVwsz_rkQJ_ef2KehtIujYd_I4R1GtCxA#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

COVID 19 Symptom tracker for the UK https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
Note that this suggests more than twice as many cases as given by figures from tests done so far.


Will I be infected?

Information was that you have to be within 2 meters of someone. The consensus is that the main route of infection to avoid is - touching surfaces contaminated by the virus and then touching your mouth or eyes. Even when you do, this does not mean that you will always become ill (see 'How can I protect myself' below) as you have to receive a certain dose of virus for successful infection.

  • The virus is possibly shed into the air by an infected person. 
  • The virus can even be spread by people who are not displaying obvious symptoms like fever or a cough. 
  • The highest shedding of virus occurs just before the onset of symptoms and then declines.
  • Your risk of infection is dramatically reduced the further away you are from ill people. 

However, it is possible that a significant percentage of the population will be infected eventually.

What does the virus COVID-19 do?

The COVID-19 coronavirus infects the cells lining the airways of the body, the epithelial cells.  In severe cases it seems to progress to the lungs, causing pneumonia.

The virus has a complex protein capsule that contains the virus genes. The virus genes are on a single strand of RNA – not DNA. This strand is 29903 bases (units) long. Numerrous isolates of the virus have been sequenced and their sequences made publically available for all scientists - see https://www.ebi.ac.uk/ena/browser/text-search?query=Wuhan%202019%20nCoV.

On contact with one of your epithelial cells, the cell is triggered to take up the virus. Inside the cell, the virus hijacks your cell’s own functions to make copies of its single RNA strand. The genes encoded on the virus RNA are translated into a range of virus proteins by the cell. New virus particles are then assembled within the cell. They are then either exported by the cell or released when the cell dies. Neighbouring cells are then infected.   If the conditions are right, the virus begins to spread along your airways.

COVID-19 can be symptomless in some people for between 5 to 12 days. If they appear, the symptoms you may get range from fever, sore throat, dry cough, fatigue and breathing difficulties. A recent paper in the American Journal of Gastroenterology suggests that digestive problems may be an early indicator of COVID-19 in nearly 49% of cases, in advance of other symptoms.

They are in part due to the virus affecting/killing cells but also due to your body going into overdrive to try to fight the virus infection (often described as a cytokine storm). How ill you are is a balance between virus multiplication and how fast and effectively your body defence works. There is more information below in the next section on how you can protect yourself.

How can I protect myself?

Your choices NOW affect how many cases the NHS has to deal with in 14 days.

There is no vaccine for COVD-19 yet – but with the full sequence of the virus available, work is in progress to provide a vaccine in the next months. Therefore isolation and quarantine remain the most effective means to prevent the spread of the disease. Things you can do are:

  • Keeping healthy by eating and sleeping well, exercising*
  • Avoiding locations and people with the illness
  • Hand-washing
  • Use hand sanitisers
  • Good personal hygiene generally
  • Use the new tracking and trace app when it is on general release
*Keeping healthy is a great prophylactic as it means that your immune system is in best condition. Our bodies are actually geared to be alert to any foreign invaders and illnesses and the incoming virus does not have it all its own way.

Get the COVID Symptom Tracker app

You can join in with research on the progress of COVID 19 in the UK by downloading the COVID Symprom tracker app from https://covid.joinzoe.com/

Disinfecting smooth surfaces:

You can use:
  • 70% or stronger alcohol to wipe surfaces (preferred - effective and leaves no residue)
  • Thin bleach or diluted thick bleach
  • Soapy water.
Remember to wear rubber gloves. Wipe with paper towels you can throw away. AND WASH YOUR HANDS AFTERWARDS.


Clothing/ cloth articles
  • Wash in washing machine with your usual detergent.
  • WASH YOUR HANDS AFTER placing possibly contaminated clothes into washing machine.

Possible UV inactivation of CoV SARS 2

Hospitals and laboratories often use special flow cabinets with UV lights to sterilise surfaces. From the publications I looked at, RNA viruses in aerosols are quite resistant to UV exposure, requiring times of half an hour or more with shortwave UV (about 254 nm). For those wanting to pursue this further, the following may be of interest.

Your body - your best defender!

If a cell in your body is overcome by an infection and dies, this triggers other chemical signals which alert a variety of white blood cells. Some, called macrophages, come to absorb the invading foreign viruses and take the information back to T-cells. The T-cells in turn use this information to help create killer T-cells and antibodies. There are also memory cells that will remember the antibodies required to fight any future infections by the same strain of virus.

Some of my neutrophils from a cold,
photographed at over 1000x magnification
using anoptral contrast

In the meantime, a whole army of another type of white cell, neutrophils, invade the infected area and gobble up all the debris of damaged cells and the viruses they come across. When you have pus from a spot, or your runny nose produces the thick white stuff, or you cough up thick phlegm - that is mostly made up of these short lived neutrophils that have gorged themselves on what is infecting you.

Incoming coronaviruses also trigger the production of interferons within the cell and initiate other yet unknown responses. These seem to slow down virus action. In turn, viruses continually evolve to overcome the cell’s defences. (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2593566/).

In chemotherapy and radiotherapy, these immune systems are weakened, hence you become more susceptible to infections taking over. So take extra care.

What nations and the international community can do

Countries and the World Health Organisation have plans and structures in place to trigger action when diseases are spreading. The WHO had expressed its opinion that this was still a controllable pandemic and that a shift from containment to mitigation would be wrong and dangerous.

UK Response

PM Boris Johnson acknowledged that this was "the worst public health crisis for a generation".

  • The UK is trying containment by restrictions on movement and will be introducing track and trace in the near future. 
  • The UK is ramping up testing for all critical care workers (hospitals, care homes, emergency services, including police, teachers etc.).
  • Individuals with a fever or cough must self isolate for seven days. Families with one infected person need to self isolate for 14 days to ensure everyone is in the clear. 
  • Schools and non-critical businesses have been closed from the weekend of  21st March, exceptions are for critical care workers and essential functions to keep the country running. 
  • People over 70 and those with pre-existing health conditions have been told to self isolate for the foreseeable future. 
  • Travel locally and abroad is strongly discouraged
  • The NHS has survived the current peak and people with symptoms are no longer required to call NHS 111. They are instead directly to look for information on the NHS website and 111 online.

Latest Documents from the UK Government accessible here: 


The plan

The aim is to slow down the rate of infection so that the peak in hospital cases is lower and spread, so that the NHS can cope.

Even after the virus has been brought under some degree of control, the virus and some degree of control measures are with us for the foreseeable future - possibly more than one year.

The number of tests for infection is to be dramatically increased to determine which key workers are affected and which individuals can work in critical posts. The UK is still lagging behind in testing compared to a number of other developed countries.

In the near future, testing to see who has been infected and recovered will be possible. This will most likely be by using mass produced antibody kits, similar to pregnancy tests. Knowing someone has recovered and is resistant to the virus will give reassurance that they can return to work without being at risk to themselves and others.

Ultimately, the country needs to gain a significant proportion of the population that is resistant to the virus. This "herd immunity" (see below) can be obtained both by recovery from being infected and from vaccination.

Vaccines are being developed and tests have begun both in animal and small scale human studies. It could take a year or more before a vaccine is generally available.

Herd Immunity and Vaccination

Herd immunity by recovery is a real effect with a number of diseases. Governments around the world expect that a significant percentage of the population will be infected over the coming year. The hope is that recovered individuals will be immune.

Note of caution, immunity to existing corona-viruses, such as those causing the common cold, disappears quickly. We do not yet know if we gain immunity after infection with the SARS CoV2 and how long the immunity will last.

Natural herd immunity occurs when a significant proportion of the population has been infected and survived. The survivors are resistant to the illness and, if their numbers are high enough, it becomes more and more difficult for the disease to find uninfected persons. The progress of an epidemic slows or can even peter out if herd immunity is high enough.

With the current  estimate of an average rate of one person infecting between 2 to 4 people for COVID-19, this could mean that 50% to 80% of the population would have to go through infection to achieve full herd immunity against COVID-19 (based on figures in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanism).

However, it could be that the UK is hoping that a lower figure of herd immunity may reduce the level of general infection in the population, if not achieving outright cessation of the epidemic.

In the meantime, vaccine development, testing and then mass production will be undertaken as fast as possible to provide our protection in future years. The first safety trials of some vaccines have already started. Earliest prospects for a possible vaccine in low numbers suggested for end of year. Realistically we might have to wait till 2021.

Other countries' responses

As Europe was the new focus of the pandemic, the US and other countries stopped people from European countries (including the UK and Ireland) entering.

Within Europe, France, Germany, The UK and Spain had joined Italy and also introduced more control measures, promoting self isolation, banning public gatherings and restricting movement within and between countries. Now the controls are being relaxed gradually. The aim is to allow more and more freedom but to a level that we do not have another sudden flash of cases and allows the health systems cope at a reasonable level.

The USA had implemented more testing and stringent control measures to try and limit the escalating crisis in its states. However, there is very strong pressure to relax controls and get the economy going again and different states are opening up to varying degrees, often contradicting the recommended scientific tests. The balance between scientific modelling and advice and political decision making is beginning to lean towards the latter. So far this has worked OK as new cases continue to decline.

The differing responses of countries to the coronavirus epidemic have in effect been a global experiment whose results will reveal best strategies for future epidemics. The same is now true for the rate of relaxation of controls in different countries - it is the next global experiment.

The general global practice with new diseases prior to COVID-19


Every year, new strains of influenza arise naturally by mutation as the virus adapts to us changing humans. Rather than letting a large proportion of the world’s population become ill (letting many people die) with the survivors therefore gaining resistance to the newest strain, we humans are proactive. Up and coming new strains of viruses are identified and vaccines produced so that by the time the disease arrives in your part of the world, you are protected in advance and do not get ill, or only have mild symptoms

With totally new viruses, like the COVID-19 coronavirus, there is no immediate vaccine defence. It is therefore vital that a country keeps tabs on new illnesses that arise. They need to have plans in place to deal with the isolation of infected people. They also need to provide care whilst patients go through the illness, to mitigate symptoms until they get well.

Until we have a vaccine, severe cases may be helped by giving them antibodies from people who have recovered from the disease. This method was used against diphtheria in the early 1900's in Alaska, though the antibody serum was actually derived from horses. I do not know if this is currently being pursued. Cloned antibodies might be an alternative solution.


 Update 08/03/2020 re using antibodies from people who have recovered: first reports in news that Germany and USA looking to use plasma from recovered patient for serious cases. 

 Update 20/04/2020: Plasma treatment (using antibodies from people who have recovered) being trialed in the UK, including Addenbrookes, Cambridge.


In this interconnected world, nations also have a responsibility to alert the WHO early about upcoming diseases. This time round, full marks for the Chinese response, because we were made aware of the issue earlier than in the past. The world was able to start monitoring for carriers of the illness and put in place travel restrictions.

Despite the WHO advice to act quickly and decisively, most countries underestimated the speed at which the COVID-19 spread in the population and held back from mass testing and tracing whilst numbers were still low. Now, outbreaks such as those in the USA and most of western Europe are now challenging us with a significant number of deaths and stretched healthcare systems.


Information, documents and guidance from the WHO, the UK and US.


The UK and WHO have the following information on responses to epidemics and the teams and mechanisms in place. They can be found in public documents such as:


So, should I be concerned?

Yes. COVID-19 is still affecting many people in Europe and the US.  The disease could be with us for the next few months and possibly into the coming years.

 The hard containment measures have slowed down the number of new infections in a number of countries. Relaxation of restrictions is gradually being introduced but with an eye being kept on the effect on virus reproduction in the population.

Look out for public advice from the authorities dealing with the outbreak. The following advice is practical not just in this instance but to minimise your risk of getting ill from any disease that is circulating:
  • Keep healthy by eating and sleeping well and exercising
  • Avoiding locations and people with the illness
  • Regular hand-washing
  • Use of hand sanitisers where there might be a risk in public
  • Note, the use of masks is best for protecting others from you when you are ill rather than protecting you from others.
If you have returned from a region seriously affected by COVID-19, or met an individual who has subsequently succumbed to the illness, and begin to experience chest and cough symptoms, stay at home and look online at NHS 111 in the UK https://111.nhs.uk/covid-19. This ensures that you get the right response and treatment and do not accidentally spread the disease further, endangering people in public places, doctors surgeries or hospital reception.

I have also been looking at some of the more technical aspects of the virus genome sequence in the article "What could I find out with a Wuhan COVID-19 coronavirus sequence?" here http://www.miltoncontact-blog.com/2020/02/what-could-i-find-out-with-wuhan-2019.html 


Posted by Miltoncontact at 01:08 0 comments
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Tuesday, 28 January 2020

Preventing spread and getting a good bounce with a mixed rye-wheat bread

Mixed rye-wheat sourdough load with a good bounce
This ever happened to you? I had a break in baking my sourdough loaves over Christmas. The next loaves I set up in the new year all seemed to have a more plastic dough. it spread more during the final rise. When slashed and in the oven, it hardly rose, coming out of the oven like a slightly thicker discus. I tried again. Same result.

I checked through my method line by line. There was one small difference. I'd kept the last rise in a large but closed container to stop the dough drying out too much over the usual three to four hour rise. Before Christmas, I'd covered the floured dough ball with a tea towel.

The third time, I kept the last rise under a tea towel. The dough rose and spread less. The outer surface had formed a slightly drier skin, which resisted the expansion, leading to a more domed loaf. I cut a cross with a sharp knife as previously, to an inch depth and almost to the base the dough was on.

This time, the large bounce occurred within the first 10 minutes  of baking and continued slightly till the end of the bake.

Covering the floured dough with a tea towel prevented the dough from drying out too much. The the less flexible thin skin formed on the surface maintained the loaf's shape and also, I suspect, put the gas bubbles formed in the dough under a slight pressure. After slashing and placing in the oven, the heat caused the rapid controlled expansion which was helped by the cuts exposing the interior, still very moist and flexible, dough
Posted by Miltoncontact at 01:33 0 comments

Thursday, 15 March 2018

A STEM Afternoon With Polarised Light and Microscope

Polar Bear Fur at 100x magnification between crossed polarisation filters
Thirty year 3 primary school students, arranged in a horseshoe jostled each other as they held out 3D cinema glasses, with the arms of the frame pointing at the white desktop screen behind me. They turned the frames, gasped as the polarising lenses suddenly blocked out the light from the screen and then exploded into different directions in the library to get closer to other screens themselves. Soon, some of the more inquisitive also tried out viewing at the live projection screen, the windows, lights and white paper, discovering that the blanking out could only happen at the desktop screens (as these have their own primary polarising filters). Some students collaborated and found that you could also get the darkening effect on lights if you used two sets of glasses/two sets of filters

They were reluctantly dragged back to be still again in a wide circle around the screen. Glasses held at extinction, I slowly lowered an A6 sized rectangle of clear acetate sheet in front of the screen. the hubbub rose again and then got excited when I stuck a piece of Sellotape to the sheet and revealed a range of polarisation colours. From then on the class teacher and I were the focus of a constant stream of students coming back for more and more Sellotape for their own abstract hidden artworks.

This remarkably simple demonstration, of creating colour effects that could only be seen using polarisation filters, filled a good part of 15 minutes. It brought home to me that what seems like a simple everyday technique for many amateur microscopists (and geologists) still had the capability to bring a sense of discovery and wonder to those who saw it for the first time.

You could also tell that the school/teachers had a very positive and supportive nature in working with their young students as the latter were unafraid and open to trying things out and asking questions when they did not understand. Their enthusiasm only had to be curbed when it got too exuberant. Not everyone understood my explanations of polarisation, but they seemed to have come away having learned a new insight or experience of unexpected things you can do with objects they normally take for granted.

The two sessions of 30 students each took over 90 minutes, including talk, demonstration and the practicals. They were topped and tailed by the preparation and packing time in the library. As I was setting up over half an hour, there was a steady flow of students - to the workstations, and to the books. But this was not a reverent or even dull silent area. It was a place to talk about what books a reader might want to go to next after returning the last one, a discussion of preferences.

I found myself pulled in on a conversation as I saw Peter Bunzl's Clockheart and Moonlocket. I'd been drawn into the series after spending my birthday at Leicester Space Centre last November, when there was a simultaneous exhibition of Steampunk. Cogheart struck my eye as a memento to take home and enjoy with my new rocket adorned mug. The paperback versions of the Magyk series was also on the table, with its lovely black and white illustrations.

After the rush of the sessions, the library emptied and I began to pack,  the cheery librarian returned, and now it was the turn of parents and children to come and visit in ones and twos. The microscope stayed on the table, slides and filters were brought out again as the curious came to peer and delight  in what they saw, adult and child alike. The head louse slide was a common denominator for us parents!

Head louse, composite stacked images of 2D panorama
I found myself chatting to a German parent about the books I enjoyed as a child - from Ottfried Preussler to Michael Ende and Cornelia Funke, and recommending animal and vet related books by James Herriot, Gerald Durrell and, on a more fantastical side, the Redwall series.

After Stephen Hawking's death yesterday I also recommended the children series he'd written with daughter Lucy, as I'd enjoyed reading 'George's Secret Key to the Universe' in one go last night in his memory. I found it a much easier and yet scientifically informative read than the highly lauded but seldom finished 'A Brief History of Time'. It had hard facts as a part of the fiction (something done so well by the adult exponent of the hard SciFi genre, Hal Clement, with 'A Mission of Gravity').

The son of the last parent to arrive had been in one of the earlier sessions. His voice carried over as he explained to his amazed mum why a 3D cinema glasses lens could darken a PC screen "It works because there is already a filter on the computer screen!" Subconsciously turning to look at me after he had said it, I gave him a thumbs up across the room.

I left at 5 pm, having extended the STEM activity for a couple of hours, from a hectic full class session to a more calmly paced one to two with a number of parents and children. Tired but positive.
Posted by Miltoncontact at 22:22 0 comments

Monday, 15 January 2018

Going from from Micro to Macrophotography with Melolin

Multiple layers Melolin dressing taken though the microscope
Recently, I've had a play with macro-photography. I'm comfortable photographing through the microscope, creating panoramas and stacks but wanted to try capturing subjects more in the centimeter size range and ended up reading around and just experimenting.

I was trying to capture almost a whole specimen on a microscope slide. Initially I tried using my camera with its usual lens but with a lot of extension tubes (66 mm).  The sample was also between tow polarisation filters for colour effects. This worked reasonably well, especially when I took a range of images at different focus and combined them. However, when you look more closely at the image (Full screen), you could see a softening of the image around the edges.

Melolin membrane using 50 mm lens with 66 mm extension tubes
This bugged me, so the next day I thought, why not simply use a low power microscope objective as the lens for the camera?  Cutting some card and and using blue-tac I finally bodged the arrangement  below. Note that the camera is also mounted on a Newer two way rail which I am quite impressed with!

Using a low power microscope objective on the camera
Taking another stack of photos at focus through the slide, I generated a much more satisfactory image as shown below.

Melolin membrane between crossed polars, with low power objective attached to camera.
Trying the same method on a different slide with several layers of melolin membrane on top of each other gave this beautiful coloured image, created by the interference of the polarised light passing through the different filters.

Multiple layers of melolin membranes between crossed polars, taken with low power objective on camera
Of course, the final question is, what is Melolin membrane? The membrane is used in Melolin dressings. Melolin is a trademark of Smith & Nephew http://www.smith-nephew.com/uk/products/wound_management/product-search/melolin/.

As you can see from the image of the single layer, the membrane has numerous very small pores. It is made of poly(ethylene terephthalate) and can be applied to lightly leaking sutures, abrasions or wounds without sticking to them. Dressings can be provided with absorbant pads over the filter, so that the exudate passes through the filter and is absorbed on the pad.

There is a simple beauty in a practical everyday object, that makes even more sense when you know how it works.
Posted by Miltoncontact at 12:25 0 comments

Monday, 13 November 2017

An HBN 'Out and About' to Webtec, St Ives


HBN does a series of interesting visits to local companies in Huntingdonshire (our 'Out and About'), so it was with some curiosity that I took a lift with Nick Smith of EAM Consulting to this month's visit, mulling over the company name. I knew it was likely to be manufacturing, but obviously, judging by the name, internet related.

I couldn't have been more wrong! As Managing Director Martin Cuthbert soon explained after welcoming the select group of visitors, Webtec's name came from pre-web days, Web was an abbreviated version of Webster. The tec was, and still is, technology, specifically monitoring equipment for hydraulic systems.

Oversimplified, hydraulics is the use of liquids in pipes. Because liquids are by and large very difficult to compress, if you push plunger in at one end of a pipe, the pressure and movement will be transferred to the other end. As Martin wryly commented, whenever he travels down the building site that is the A14, he cannot help but notice the hydraulics in use in diggers, lifters, drilling rigs and a myriad of other machinery. Hydraulics also allow you to transfer energy at very high pressures, which can be used to drive specialised turbines or exert great force.

Working with hydraulic systems means that things can occasionally leak or systems go wrong. Webtec helps in providing measuring equipment that can help detect either the optimum performance of a machine or the first signs that a service might be in order. The company uses state of the art computerised machinery to make components from blocks of aerospace grade aluminium and steel. We could see how a component gradually developed from a simple block of metal to a high precision milled unit.

We learnt a very useful tip when checking for leaks in hydraulic systems, don't try to find the leaks with your hand. The liquid can be ejected at such high pressure from a pin-prick hole, that it is injected under your skin. This has to be treated quickly as it can cause you further damage and poisoning.

Webtec's products are exported globally, mirroring the UK in that 50 percent of exports go to the EU. Which naturally raised the question of Brexit. As with many other companies international exporters, the key frustration was the current uncertainty. This was coupled with pragmatically putting contingencies in place, to allow border free trading, a rapid response and the good customer relationships that clients will still be expecting within the EU.

The other fascinating story was the transition from an autocratic family-head led firm to a modern business. Martin is one of the two brothers who took over the company from their father, who had bought it from the American firm he was originally working for. Together, the brothers instigated a program of change, with devolved and shared responsibilities amongst the workforce.

One of the biggest problems for engineering firms is getting youngsters to join the business. Webtec has proactively built up a relationship with the regional colleges. Staff are challenged by going out to get involved in STEM activities.  They often get insights from the way the students bring new and unexpected solutions to the challenges they are given. The company in turn offers apprenticeships which look to find the best and maintain the continuing growth and development of the business.

I particularly liked the fact that Webtecc viewed the unusual requests or problems in hydraulics as challenges - ones that opened up new and unforeseen opportunities. When asked how Webtec survived in a competitive world, where big players had hoovered up a lot of the smaller companies, Martin's response was: flexibility, a genuine interest in your customer's issues and helping them find the best solution.

A good HBN 'Out and About'.






Posted by Miltoncontact at 21:50 0 comments

Friday, 1 September 2017

The CETC Annual Garden Party

Cambridge MP Daniel Zeichner Keynote Speaker at CETC Garden Party
The torrential rain cleared and a rainbow heralded the CETC (Cambridge Enterprise and Technology Club) Annual Garden Party. Around fifty members and guests wound their way through Wolfson College to reach its Lee Hall. Armed with drinks we chatted in groups and admired the  Betty Wu Lee Garden through the opened veranda doors.

CETC Chair, Dr Andrea Lorenz, wearing a shimmering red chinese jacket patterned with golden dragons, gave a welcome speech. Peppered with witty comments and reminiscences, she spoke of the past year's successful meetings and the ambitious 2017/18 program. Above all, she thanked the attending visitors and guests and invited them to take part in a competition to suggest future speakers and topics. The winner would win a flight over London in a four-seater plane - or the equivalent for those of a more nervous disposition.

Cambridge MP Daniel Zeichner, was our invited keynote speaker and he reflected on the vibrancy of business, science and technology interacting and collaborating in Cambridge, due in no small part to networking and events such as the CETC talks.

The food and the venue were excellent and the place was still buzzing with conversation at its close.

Posted by Miltoncontact at 01:40 0 comments

Friday, 14 July 2017

Evelyn Glennie, Musician and Businesswoman hosts HBN's Out and About


HBN had a fascinating visit to see Dame Evelyn Glennie, renowned solo percussionist - and discovered that there was also a surprising amount of business acumen needed to be an independent artist in the modern world.

Having literally created the concept of a solo percussionist, Evelyn found herself increasingly in demand and rushing around the globe at the behest of agents and events. In one of the few breaks in a hectic schedule, the moment of enlightenment came on a simple post-it note on the wall at a meeting with her small dedicated team. It simply asked, "Who owns your business?" 

It was time to answer "Evelyn Glennie".

Stopping to think about where you wanted to be, what you wanted to achieve and how to get there was that key stage at which so many of us small businesses fail. Even artists have to deal with the practical realities of when to get paid, logistics of moving material and products around, and most of all, business development.

Used to having shattered preconceptions of what a percussionist does, Evelyn and her team began to change the rules in how an artist finds work and gets paid for it. Rather than relying simply on agents, Evelyn increasingly used social media to reach out both to the audience, the venues and promotors who organised events. Facebook and particularly Twitter overtook paper advertising - and also reached out to new audiences. 

Taking control of her own business also meant being open to new opportunities and collaborations - with dance groups, scientists and of course other musicians. There was also space to engage in more socially minded activities. And of course there are the masterclasses, speaking engagements etc.

A lovely vignette was the story of The Letter. It had been a busy tour and Evelyn returned tired and expecting  the usual mass of accumulated letters. Her desk, however, was empty, bar a tray with a solitary letter and a cup of tea. Oh my, what could this portend? Bad news perhaps? It was the letter from the Palace notifying Evelyn that she had been chosen to be Dame Commander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire (DBE) in the 2007 New Year Honours. And this year, she was appointed to the Order of the Companions of Honour (CH) in the 2017 New Year Honours.

When the tables were turned and we recounted our varied business interests, Evelyn was not only genuinely interested but saw connections and links either to her experience or possible useful connections.

It was a relaxed, personable meeting as conversation and questions bounced across the room, intermingled with laughter. Unpretentious, unselfconscious, Evelyn Glennie was a gracious host and we all left grateful for an informative, educational and entertaining couple of hours in conversation shared with other local small businesses.

And a special thanks for being game for our group photo with the newest, if apparently reluctant, human percussion instrument!
Posted by Miltoncontact at 19:59 0 comments

Matthew Bailey introduces "Smart Cities” to Cambridge

Matthew Bailey, Internet of Things Pioneer, confidently overcame the technological challenges both large and small, in his talk on Smart Cities at the Allia Future Business Centre on Wednesday 12 July. I'd hummed and hawed about going as work was piling on, but was glad I did. I came back with three clear messages from his talk:

1. Need to return data ownership to the individual
2. Sharing local data intelligently in Smart Cities
3. Connecting Smart Cities.

But what is a Smart City? They are "cities that have deployed—or are currently piloting—the integration of information, communications and technology (ICT) solutions across three or more different functional areas of a city", according to Lisa Arrowsmith, associate director for connectivity, smart homes and smart cities at IHS. These areas include mobile and transport, energy and sustainability, physical infrastructure, governance, and safety and security.

For anyone familiar with the UK's construction and housing sector and Government structures, this does sound like a pipedream, where new communities can be built without even giving thought to the basic provision of decent high speed internet coverage as integration is certainly absent between providers of housing, services and transport.

To achieve anything, you do actually need to have a more local influence to initiate bringing disparate sectors together to create that greater whole that might even have a glimmer of a hope of becoming a 'Smart City". Matthew gave us some excellent examples from the US such as Massachusetts and Boulder, Colorado. The key factor in success here was convincing Mayors and  other politicians that you could solve city logistical problems AND win votes at the same time with an integrated Smart City approach.

Within Cambridgeshire, this should certainly be on the radar of the newly elected Super-Mayor for our region.

The added advantage to relevance of developing more local strategies, is escaping the clutches of either monolithic, labyrinthine national or federal bureaucracy or the stranglehold of large international commercial service providers who can exert a stranglehold on development. A prime example given was a certain power supply company that could dictate a city's policies, right down to street lighting in the US.

Initiatives for Smart Cities are seeding globally and, because they see the advantages of integrating big data on their communities and services to ensure a more effective city growth and development, they are also beginning to talk to each other and share experiences, good and bad.

The thing that struck me as I was thinking about the democratisation of information gathering and decision sharing, was that this also requires smart opinion collecting. Matthew had been approaching the strategy from the top down - Mayors and other politicians, then down to interested focus groups and possibly looking at local feedback from individuals. Rightly so when you consider the power and money flow.

Now, many communities are already building their communication networks, newsletters, blogs and discussion forums very locally. These might be dealing with micro-issues in the wider context of things. However, if one could crowdsource this information or even integrate these micro decisions/opinions, you would have a bottom up source of local information on needs and desires that could really make Smart Cities the integrated 'Rainforest' of interconnected and yet balanced city ecologies.

As ever, there was a note of caution that tied the blue sky thinking solidly back to the ground. To be able to intelligently share data, you need robust systems that will not fail at the critical moments. Rather than spoken, the point was driven home by the technical issues of trying to connect a laptop to the presentation screen. Something that functioned perfectly before the talk and then failed just before the presentation, was restored and then failed again at as Matthew was approaching the denouement of his exposition.

Smart Cities are in their infancy but will be powerhouses of the future. Matthew has written on open White Paper on the four stages to develop one in your city. you can access it here http://matthewjamesbailey.com/building-smart-cities-mindfully/.
Posted by Miltoncontact at 11:29 0 comments
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